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王勇:中美贸易战十大真相(中英文) 【转】

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发表于 2018-8-18 11:12:27 |显示全部楼层
王勇:中美贸易战十大真相(中英文)


王勇 中改研究


美国民众需要了解的是中美贸易的真相,而不是特朗普的恶意指控。无论特朗普总统有何言论,中美两国之间的贸易是自由和公平的。现列举以下十点以解释其原因。

本文作者系盘古智库学术委员、北京大学国际关系学院教授王勇,文章原载于2018年7月31日《洛杉矶时报》。


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中美贸易的十大真相
王勇

美国正在全球范围内开打一场贸易战,尤其是对中国。特朗普总统对中国商品征收关税,并指责中美之间存在的贸易逆差。2017 年,中国向美国出口了价值约5000 亿美元的商品和服务,而美国却向中国出口价值1300 亿美元的产品。特朗普声称这中间存在着3700 亿美元的贸易逆差。但多数经济学家认为,该逆差并没有损害到美国的利益。

美国民众需要了解的是中美贸易的真相,而不是特朗普的恶意指控。无论特朗普总统有何言论,中美两国之间的贸易是自由和公平的。现列举以下十点以解释其原因。

1.虽然中国作为发展中国家,对美国商品征收的关税高于美国对其征收的关税,但这关税仍低于包括印度在内的许多其他发展中国家。中国自2001 年加入世界贸易组织以来,一直在减少贸易壁垒。中国一直是美国出口增长最快的市场,而美国出口商也在抢抓机遇,能多捞金就多捞金。根据中国商务部2017 年公布的数据,有56%的美国大豆、26%的波音飞机和17%的美国制造的汽车在中国销售。

2.美国进口商对进口的产品视需求而定。没有人强迫他们去购买中国产品。美国中产阶级的收入增长放缓也有多年,而物美价廉的中国进口商品帮助他们以同样的收入购买到更多的商品。

3.限制两国经济交流的,不是中国的贸易壁垒,而是美国的出口管制。中国的贸易优势在于低廉的劳动力成本,而美国的贸易优势在于资本和土地。中国向美国出口劳动密集型产品;美国向中国出口技术产品和农产品。然而,美国出口政策决定着出口的种类和数量,这比欧洲(尤其是德国)和日本的出口政策更严格。如果没有对例如飞机和飞机引擎、导航系统、激光和光纤等高科技产品施行出口禁令,美国对中国的贸易赤字将减少。

4.贸易逆差的数字未必真实。以苹果iPhone 手机为例,它们先在中国进行组装,再运往美国,其中所产生的高成本大大增加了中国对两国贸易不平衡的影响。但是中方仅获得iPhone 手机5%的价值(主要是工厂的人工成本),而苹果的设计、品牌和营销占其价值的近60%。iPhone 手机零部件并非来自中国,而是来自全球供应链。因而从中受益的是供应商,并非中国。iPhone 手机所预估的240 美元“工厂成本”,夸大了中国对美国出口的价值,因为中国从每台iPhone 手机中的获利不足9 美元。

5.谈及中美贸易逆差时,美国的贸易保护主义者有意忽略像旅游、教育、银行业、保险业和版税支付等“服务贸易”中的美国盈余。根据中国统计数据显示,2017 年中美贸易逆差额度高达541 亿美元,且十年间急剧上升。

6.目前许多美国公司在中国的销售额已经超过了5000 亿美元,但美国贸易保护主义者同样对此不予理睬。这些公司正在从快速增长的中国市场获得巨大利润。他们的成功提高了美国零部件出口,增加了对中国的知识产权。

7.在知识产权方面,特朗普总统不断指责中国不仅窃取美国的技术,还生产山寨产品。然而中国在上世纪90 年代末就建立了知识产权保护体系。虽然该体系建立时间较晚,但相关法律法规仍然在发挥作用。2017 年,中国知识产权对外支付额达到286 亿美元,与2001年加入世贸组织时相比增加了15 倍。而美国的知识产权所有者是最大的受益方。

8.指责中国企业强制进行技术转让是另一项过时指控。中国没有任何法律法规强迫美国企业进行这种转移;而且合资企业是建立在逐笔交易谈判的基础之上的。一些美国公司愿意通过技术转让的方式进入中国市场。例如,通用汽车和福特汽车的合资企业使他们成为中国最大的两家汽车制造商。

9.美国总统特朗普要遏制“中国制造2025”,指责这是一项实现中国产业现代化的国家补贴计划。他还控诉中国实行的“国家资本主义”模式。但是中国的补贴政策符合世界贸易组织的规定,而且对外资企业同样适用。美国也实施了类似的贸易保护主义:把国家补贴和国防开支用于互联网、半导体、核电站以及军民两用航天技术。

10.中国的贸易行为通常都符合世贸组织准则。中国也与美国一样,每两年接受一次世贸组织的审查。自2001 年以来,在世贸组织争端中,中国遭受指控40 次,而美国遭受指控80 次。接到控告时中国会纠正其贸易行为,而美国却极少服从。

中国不想与特朗普持续升级的贸易战作斗争,但是中国定会保卫自己的权益。与此同时,中国正在与其他外国投资者接触联系,以制衡美国贸易战的一系列举动。如果特朗普政府坚持贸易战,美国可能会失去许多投资机遇。更糟糕的是,特朗普的行为让人们回想起20世纪30 年代,当时国会通过了保护主义的斯穆特——霍利关税法案,结果导致了全球贸易战、货币战,最终演变为第二次世界大战。美国人民应该记住这段历史,并反对特朗普对中国实行贸易战。


Ten truths about U.S.-China tradeWang Yong

The Trump administration is fighting a trade war with the whole world, and especially with China. The president has slapped tariffs on Chinese goods, railing about the U.S.-China trade deficit. Last year, China exported goods and services worth roughly $500 billion to the U.S., and the U.S. sent back exports worth $130 billion. The president calls that $370-billion deficit thievery, but most economists don’t see its harm to America.

The American people need to hear the truth about U.S.-China trade, instead of Trump’s charges of bad faith. Despite what the president says, trade between our nations is free and fair, and these 10 points explain why.

1. Although China, as a developing country, has higher tariffs on U.S. goods than the U.S. does on Chinese goods, its tariffs are still lower than those of many other developing countries, including India. Since China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, it has consistently lowered its trade barriers. China has been the fastest growing market for U.S. exports, and U.S. exporters are not stupid: They know a good deal when they see it. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce data published last year, 56% of U.S. soybeans, 26% of Boeing airplanes and 17% of American-made automobiles are sold in China.

2. As for goods coming into the U.S., American importers are not stupid either. No one is forcing them to buy Chinese goods. Inexpensive Chinese imports have helped the U.S. middle class, which has experienced slow income growth for years, to buy more with the same income.

3. It isn’t Chinese barriers but U.S. export controls that limit our economic exchange. China's trade advantage lies in its cheaper labor costs, and the United States’ advantage lies in capital and land. China exports labor-intensive products to the U.S. , the U.S. exports technology products and agricultural products to China. However, U.S. export policy is stricter than Europe’s (especially Germany’s) and Japan’s, determining what and how much can be exported. Without export prohibitions on 20 high-tech products such as aircraft and aircraft engines, navigation systems, lasers and fiber optics, the U.S.-China deficit would decrease.

4. Trade deficit numbers can be deceiving. Take the Apple iPhone. When they arrive in the U.S. from China where they are assembled, their high cost adds significantly to the trade imbalance in China’s favor. But Chinese workers and factories only receive 5% of the value of an iPhone (mainly labor costs), while Apple's design, brand and marketing account for nearly 60% of its value. China doesn’t even provide parts for the iPhone; those come from the global supply chain and the benefit goes to the suppliers, not to China. By one calculation, an iPhone’s estimated “factory cost” — $240 — exaggerates the value of China’s exports to the U.S. because the Chinese keep less than $9 per phone.

5. When American protectionists talk about the trade deficit with China, they deliberately ignore the U.S. surplus in “service trade” — such sectors as travel, education, banking, insurance and royalty payments. According to Chinese statistics, in 2017 that imbalance was as high as $54.1 billion, and it has risen steeply for a decade.

6. Another thing protectionists deliberately ignore is that the sales of U.S. companies in China have surpassed $500 billion. These firms are making huge profits from the fast-growing Chinese market, and their success adds to the export of U.S. components and intellectual property rights to China.

7. As for intellectual property, Trump constantly accuses China of stealing U.S. technology and knocking off its goods. Although China established intellectual property protections late — in the 1990s — those laws are working. In 2017, China’s external payment of intellectual property fees reached $28.6 billion, 15 times more than when it joined WTO in 2001. U.S. intellectual property owners are the biggest beneficiaries.

8. Accusing Chinese firms of forced technology transfers is another outdated charge. No laws or regulations compel such transfers; joint ventures are based on deal-by-deal negotiations and some U.S. companies are willing to transfer technology for Chinese market access. General Motors’ and Ford’s joint ventures, for example, have made them two of the largest automobile manufacturers in China.

9. President Trump wants to stop “Made in China 2025,” the state-subsidized plan to modernize Chinese industries, and he charges China with “state capitalism.” However, Chinese subsidies are not out of line with WTO regulations, and they are available to foreign-funded enterprises too. And the United States engages in similar protectionism: Subsidies and defense spending nurtured the internet, semiconductors, nuclear power plants and military-civilian space technology.

10. China’s trade practices are generally in compliance with WTO rules. Like the U.S., China is subject to a biennial WTO review. Since 2001, China has been accused 40 times and the U.S. 80 times in WTO disputes.When judgments go against China, it corrects its course. The United States has obeyed the WTO much less often.

China doesn’t want to fight Trump’s escalating trade war, but it will defend itself. At the same time, it is reaching out to other foreign investors to counterbalance U.S. actions. America may lose investment opportunities if the Trump administration persists. Worse, the president’s actions recall the 1930s, when Congress passed the protectionist Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. The result was a worldwide trade war, a currency war and finally World War II. The American people should remember that history, and oppose Trump’s trade war on China.■


文章原载于2018年7月31日《洛杉矶时报》


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